HOW HARRIS CAN WIN

David Morey

Las Vegas, October 16, 2024: Less than three weeks from perhaps the most important US election since the Civil War—the race is tied. No one is winning. And no one knows who will win.

Today, the Harris campaign has reportedly raised nearly twice as much as the Trump campaign, hitting an extraordinary $1 billion, and continues to win nearly every single day on media and performance “contrast.” Further, most believe the Vice President beat Donald Trump more decisively than in any debate in modern political history. But still, today . . . . this remains a margin of error race.

So, the question both campaigns are privately asking themselves is this: How Can We Win? And, for its part, the Trump campaign’s answers are only marginally more difficult than the Harris campaign’s.

To be sure, the Trump campaign has a relatively harder path, just slightly longer odds, less money, fewer ground troops, and this week more uneven media and rally performances. Nevertheless, the Trump campaign has a candidate who is more popular today than ever before—more popular since he descended Trump Tower’s golden escalator on June 16, 2015.

Former President Trump’s base remains a steady-floor and low-ceiling 46 to 47% . . . and look for him to secure perhaps 48% on election day, particular in a relatively low-turnout voter scenario. Moreover, the Trump campaign is professionally run and displays a resilience their candidate has drawn upon in times and circumstances that would have quickly cratered most candidacies.

To win, former President Trump will need to better leverage his own unique ability to pull the media spotlight toward himself—and, at the same time, become more disciplined and focused . . . especially on an economy that many voters see through their own personal lens as too punishing in terms of inflation. To win, former President Trump must continue to raise fears about immigration and divide and polarize as often as possible to encourage a relatively low voter turnout.

So, make no mistake, former President Trump can win—according to the two great “Nate” analysts, Nate Silver and Nate Cohen—former President Trump’s odds of winning remain at this writing at just below 50%. And sitting here in Las Vegas—that is a single roll of the dice that can land on either side of victory or defeat. 

Now, today, on the other side of the equation . . . . how can Vice President Harris win on November 5th?

FIRST, the Harris campaign must maintain its position and attitude as an “Underdog”—a subject on which I’ve written four books. They must do this because virtually the only way to win elections today is to position as an Underdog or Insurgent Change Leader—as opposed to an incumbent who is focused backwards and bent on protecting the status quo. Today—from South Korea to the United Kingdom, from India to France—the Underdog-Insurgent candidates are winning everywhere.

SECOND, in the closing days, the Harris campaign must raise their game and play more offense. In nearly 40 years of working on campaigns—including advising 22 winning global presidential campaigns—I’ve not seen one example of a candidate or campaign that won by being predominately on the defense. Put simply, the candidate who plays more offense wins. Period.

For the Harris campaign, this means sharpening contrasts between the Vice President and the former President—doing, as she has begun, more interviews, delivering more focused messages, detailing her own Opportunity Economic Plan, and building on and leveraging a coalition of supporters and surrogates that extends from AOC to Liz Cheney, from Bernie Sanders to 17 former Ronald Reagan staffers.

For the Harris campaign, this means leveraging the recent EPI study that finds Democrats, since 1949, have produced an average of 1.2% more GDP growth, 1.5% more job creation, and slightly lower inflation. And it means reminding voters that four years ago, in 2020, America was 10 million jobs in the hole, suffering 7.8% unemployment, and even before Covid-19 facing a ballooning deficit and a manufacturing recession . . . while today, unemployment is 4.2%, the US dollar is at a 50-year high, America has produced more oil than at any time in history, crime and violent crime are down, the S&P is soaring to all-time highs, and the US has led its way to the world’s greatest post-pandemic recovery.

THIRD, finally, the Harris campaign must define what this election is all about—because the campaign that best controls the context and the fundamental questions ringing in the minds of voters on November 5th will win. And, for the Harris campaign, this means defining the stakes in this election something like this:

In these extraordinary times, we cannot simply vote by habit or tradition, left or right, Democrat or Republican. Rather, we must vote on the question of who can protect the US Constitution and prevent a return to a presidency with total immunity, unchecked, with no guard rails? We must vote on the question of who is the most stable and sound decision maker able to lead us through our next crisis? And we must decide which candidate can move beyond yesterday’s politics, bring us together . . . reboot our economy, re-protect women’s freedom, and turn the page toward a bolder future?

The candidate who wins in less than three weeks will be the candidate who can position and think as an Underdog, as a Change Leader, who can Play More Offense, and who can Define Who We Are for decades to come.

DAVID MOREY is considered one of the world’s pre-eminent insurgent strategist and is currently an unofficial advisor to the 2024 Harris Presidential campaign. He has advised twenty-two winning global presidential campaigns in eleven countries.